04/23/2025

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap: Rates improved 👍

Mortgage rates moved lower last week, regaining some of the ground lost during the previous spike. Overall, markets were noticeably calmer and rates started strong early in the week but slipped on Thursday ahead of the long holiday weekend.

This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast: Rates could move higher 👎

Mortgage rates are likely to remain volatile this week as markets react to ongoing tariff and trade war developments. There remains a risk that any new headlines or actions from the White House could cause rates to spike unexpectedly. Despite the volatility though, rates have not approached previous high levels of the year.

What's affecting rates this week:

- Firing the Fed: Concerns that President Trump may be seeking to remove Fed Chair Jerome Powell are shaking investor confidence in U.S. assets like stocks and bonds, adding pressure that could push mortgage rates higher.

- Tariffs and trade wars: Any news or new headlines about tariffs or the trade war with China could cause fast moves to rates, and could see rates move higher this week.



- Economic news: Economic reports this week could move mortgage rates, especially if they show signs of weakness or unexpected strength.

03/19/2025

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap: Rates unchanged 👍



Other than some small day-to-day movements, rates were basically unchanged last week. Despite concerns that the Trump administration's implementation of tariffs would drive inflation, there are no signs of that yet as consumer prices rose at the slowest pace in four months. Lower inflation than was forecast helped keep mortgage rates steady for the week.

This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast: Rates could be volatile ⚠️

Although this week lacks significant economic data, the Fed meeting and Fed Chair Powell's press conference will take center stage. While a policy rate change is unlikely, Fed members will provide forecasts on future rate movements. The outcome of the meeting could lead to volatility in mortgage rates.

What's affecting rates this week:

- The Fed: Markets are looking for assurances that the Fed will take action and cut its policy rate if signs of economic slowdown or labor market weakness emerge. However, if Powell and the Fed don't assure markets, we could see rates creep higher to end the week.

- Fed Chair Powell's Press Conference: Powell will hold a press conference following the Fed meeting, which often leads to market volatility and potential rate fluctuations.

03/12/2025

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap: Rates unchanged👍

Although mortgage rates didn't improve for an eighth week in a row, they did hold steady. Friday's jobs data showed some weakness in the labor market, helping rates open a bit better, but comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell later in the day that the economy was in a good place and the Fed was "well positioned to wait for greater clarity," caused rates to end the week unchanged.

This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast: Rates could improve further 👍

This week begins with market concerns about a potential economic and labor market slowdown, with some even mentioning the word "recession." However, it is still too early to determine if that will happen. Inflation data, along with other economic and labor market reports, will influence interest rates in the coming days.

What's affecting rates this week:

- Jobs data: The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey will be released this week, and if the data points to a weakening labor market, it could help rates improve.

- Inflation data: The consumer price index report will come out on Wednesday, and wholesale inflation data will come out on Thursday. Falling inflation could help rates improve, but higher inflation could push rates higher for a few days.

03/05/2025

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap: Rates slightly better 👍

Mortgage rates once again moved lower last week, and similar to previous weeks the moves weren't large but were consistent. A string of recent data showing economic activity is slowing and consumer spending is falling has helped mortgage rates fall to the best levels of the year, although still much higher than last September.

This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast: Rates could improve further 👍

This week brings a few economic reports, but more importantly, it will bring January's jobs data. Signs of labor market weakening, on top of the economic weakness we've seen recently, could help mortgage rates continue lower. If rates do move lower, it will likely continue at a slow and steady pace, as we've seen in the past few weeks.

What's affecting rates this week:

Jobs data: Multiple reports this week about jobs and unemployment, although the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey will not be released until next week. Friday's BLS jobs data will have the biggest effect on mortgage rates to end the week.

Market momentum: Markets have grown less optimistic about the economy, and concerns are rising that tariffs taking effect this week will bring about retaliatory actions from other countries.

02/26/2025

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap: Rates slightly better 👍



Rates continued to creep slightly lower last week, despite it being a short week with little in the way of economic data. It is important to note though that most of the improvement is in rebate pricing, the credit your lender gives towards costs or a reduced cost for choosing a lower rate (less paid in points). Rates themselves have not moved much lower.

This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast: Rates could improve further 👍

Mortgage rates have the potential to improve this week, particularly if current market trends persist. Concerns about tariffs and inflation have eased, allowing rates to stabilize after previous increases earlier in the year. However, after seeing rates improve the last couple of weeks, we could be due for a slight turnaround.

What's affecting rates this week:

- Inflation data: This week brings the Fed's favored gauge of inflation, the personal consumption expenditure report. Released on Friday, the data could help rates improve or worsen at the end of the week depending on if inflation increases.

- Market momentum: Markets have grown much less concerned over the effect of tariffs, and bond yields have improved because of it, which helps mortgage rates move lower over time.

02/19/2025

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap: Rates slightly improved 👍

Rates last week were volatile day-to-day, moving higher midweek when consumer inflation data came out showing inflation for January was higher than expected. By week's end, however, rates had recovered and after weak retail sales data on Friday ended the week slightly better.

This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast: Rates likely to be stable 👍

This week is light on economic data, as well as a short week with markets closed for Presidents Day, which makes it likely that rates will not move much. There may be some day-to-day movement, but unless there is a surprise event, rates will likely end the week relatively unchanged.

What's affecting rates this week:

- Tariffs: Although many proposed tariffs have been postponed, continued concerns from traders could play at least a small role in mortgage rates for the week.

- The Fed: Markets are still contemplating the potential for Fed rate cuts later this year, and the minutes from the last Fed meeting will be released this week. However, Fed rate cut expectations will only play a small role in mortgage rates this week.

02/12/2025

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap: Rates slightly improved 👍

Rates improved last week, even as jobs data indicated a resilient labor market despite the Fed maintaining higher policy rates. However, the gains were small, with rates remaining relatively steady for the second consecutive week instead of seeing the expected volatility.

This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast: Rates could improve 👍

A lot is happening this week that could impact mortgage rates, with inflation being the biggest factor. While some day-to-day rate fluctuations are expected, significant swings in either direction are unlikely.

What's affecting rates this week:

- Tariffs: While still making headlines, traders seem less concerned about tariffs, and they are not having a significant impact on mortgage rates.

- Fed speakers: This week features several speeches from Fed officials, with the most notable being Fed Chair Powell’s semiannual testimony before Congress, where he will discuss the economy, interest rates, and inflation outlook.

-Inflation: Consumer inflation data will come out on Wednesday and is expected to have the biggest impact on mortgage rates this week. Higher inflation could push rates up, while inflation in line with expectations should keep rates steady.

02/05/2025

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap: Rates basically unchanged 👍

Mortgage rates remained steady last week, with minimal reaction to the Fed meeting and Fed Chair Powell's press conference. The Fed left its policy rate unchanged as expected, but didn't give any clear indication that it would stop cutting rates this year. Inflation data for the week also came in as expected, helping keep mortgage rates stable.

This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast: Rates could be volatile ⚠️

Last week was calmer than expected, but this week could bring volatility. Markets are responding to tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, with stocks reacting more than bonds. Mortgage rates have already priced in the expected tariffs, showing minimal movement. Labor market data later this week could influence mortgage rates.

What's affecting rates this week:

- Tariffs: Markets will respond to tariffs and any countermeasures or retaliatory actions from affected countries.

- Labor market data: This week brings multiple reports about the labor market, including job turnover and layoffs, new jobs created, and unemployment numbers. Signs of labor market strength could pressure mortgage rates higher, while data signaling a weaker labor market could help rates.

01/29/2025

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap: Rates slightly worse 👎

Mortgage rates edged slightly higher last week, but the changes were minimal and not cause for major concern. There was little economic data to influence rates, and the Trump administration has yet to implement the tariffs that previously raised market concerns.

This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast: Rates could be volatile ⚠️

This week rates could see significant movement. The Fed meeting and Chair Powell's press conference are expected to have the biggest impact, with additional attention on the first release of Q4 GDP and PCE inflation data later in the week.

What's affecting rates this week:

- The Fed: The Fed meeting concludes on Wednesday, with expectations the Fed will leave its policy rate unchanged after three consecutive cuts. The policy statement will be released at 2 PM ET, but Fed Chair Powell’s press conference afterward is likely to have a greater effect on mortgage rates. Any indication of continued rate cuts could lead to lower mortgage rates, while signs the Fed has paused rate cuts could push rates higher.

- Economic data: While secondary to the Fed’s decisions, economic data releases later this week - such as Q4 GDP and PCE inflation - may still cause rate fluctuations.

01/22/2025

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap: Rates improved 👍

Rates were helped last week after inflation data came in slightly better than expected. Fed Governor Waller added to the optimism in a CNBC interview, suggesting the Fed might implement more policy rate cuts than markets anticipated, and could start cutting sooner.

This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast: Rates could move higher 👎

Let’s dive into what’s happening in the mortgage world this week. Whether you’re helping first-time buyers, seasoned homeowners, or anyone in between, here’s what you need to know to support your clients. 

This week, mortgage rates could creep a bit higher. 📉 Last week, we saw modest improvements, thanks to better-than-expected inflation data. However, with fewer economic reports to guide the market and a holiday kicking off the week, there’s a chance rates might tick up slightly. Looking ahead, rates are expected to stay near current levels for now.

What’s Affecting Rates This Week? ❓

• Market Volatility: 🔄 Economic news is light this week, but market reactions to recent events could create some small shifts in rates. Trump was sworn in on Monday and hit the ground running. We could see some volatility in markets based on the immediate actions he has taken and executive orders that are implemented.
• The Fed Blackout Period: ⚫️ With the Federal Reserve’s next meeting scheduled for January 28th-29th, Fed members won’t be making public comments this week. Last week’s reaction to remarks from Fed Governor Waller highlighted just how closely markets are watching the Fed’s moves.

01/15/2025

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap: Rates moved higher 👎

Mortgage rates rose last week, particularly on Friday, following the release of stronger-than-expected jobs data. The report showed a significant increase in job creation and a decline in the unemployment rate from 4.2% to 4.1%. This robust labor market data pushed bond yields higher and led markets to anticipate that Fed policy rate cuts would be delayed until later in the year.

This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast: Rates could move higher 👎

Mortgage rates could continue to climb this week, depending on inflation data. If inflation shows signs of increasing, concerns may grow that the Fed will be unable to lower its policy rate and might even need to consider hiking later in the year. Even if inflation remains stable, it's unlikely that mortgage rates will move lower from here.

What's affecting rates this week:

- Inflation data: Tuesday brings wholesale inflation numbers, but it is Wednesday's consumer inflation data that will have the biggest effect on mortgage rates this week.

- The Fed: Concerns that the Fed will not be able to further cut its policy rate this year could pressure mortgage rates higher.

- 10yr Treasury yield: If the 10yr yield gets near 5%, mortgage rates will move higher.

01/08/2025

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap: Rates basically unchanged 👍

Mortgage rates started the new year unchanged, and that should be considered a win after watching rates move higher in the first half of December.

This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast: Rates could move higher 👎

Mortgage rates are expected to rise in early 2025, and that trend could begin this week with strong labor market data and concerns about rising inflation. House hunters should get comfortable with these rates, because it is unlikely we will see rates move much lower without signs of a weakening economy and a softening labor market. 

What's affecting rates this week:

- Labor market data: Key reports this week will cover job openings, new job creation, layoffs, and unemployment rates. Signs of a resilient labor market support rates remaining at these levels or moving higher.

- Treasury debt: This week brings $119 billion of fresh government debt being issued, and generally an increase in supply will pressure Treasury yields higher, which could contribute to pushing mortgage rates higher.

- The Fed: Minutes from last month's Fed meeting will be released this week, and signs that the Fed is done cutting its policy rate for awhile could put pressure on mortgage rates.

12/31/2024

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap: Rates moved higher 👎

Mortgage rates edged slightly higher last week as inflation remained above the Fed's 2% target, signaling that progress toward lowering inflation may have stalled.

This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast: Rates could move higher ⚠️🤮

Mortgage rates are likely to hold steady to begin the week, but could turn volatile when the Fed meeting concludes on Wednesday, today. Without clear data showing inflation is improving or that the economy and labor market are weakening, mortgage rates are not likely to move lower.

What's affecting rates this week:

- Fed meeting: The Fed is expected to cut rates for a third consecutive meeting in December, but is likely to signal a pause - or even an end - to further cuts as we head into 2025. A quarter point Fed rate cut will not help mortgage rates, because markets have already accounted for the coming rate cut and priced it in. Markets will be looking for signs of what the Fed will do moving forward, and any indication the Fed is done cutting rates will likely pressure mortgage rates higher.

- Fed press conference: Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold his press conference after the Fed meeting, which is likely to cause more volatility in mortgage rates. as markets react to his remarks.

12/18/2024

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap: Rates moved higher 👎

Mortgage rates edged slightly higher last week as inflation remained above the Fed's 2% target, signaling that progress toward lowering inflation may have stalled.

This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast: Rates could move higher ⚠️🤮

Mortgage rates are likely to hold steady to begin the week, but could turn volatile when the Fed meeting concludes on Wednesday, today. Without clear data showing inflation is improving or that the economy and labor market are weakening, mortgage rates are not likely to move lower.

What's affecting rates this week:

- Fed meeting: The Fed is expected to cut rates for a third consecutive meeting in December, but is likely to signal a pause - or even an end - to further cuts as we head into 2025. A quarter point Fed rate cut will not help mortgage rates, because markets have already accounted for the coming rate cut and priced it in. Markets will be looking for signs of what the Fed will do moving forward, and any indication the Fed is done cutting rates will likely pressure mortgage rates higher.

- Fed press conference: Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold his press conference after the Fed meeting, which is likely to cause more volatility in mortgage rates. as markets react to his remarks.

12/11/2024

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap: Rates improved 👍

Mortgage rates improved slightly last week, helped by signs that despite headline numbers showing strength the labor market has cooled off from earlier in the year. Increasing unemployment makes it more likely the Fed will cut its policy rate at the December meeting.

This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast: Rates should remain near these levels 👍

While mortgage rates haven’t returned to the lows seen in September, they have eased from the highs of October and early November. This week's inflation data and next week's Fed meeting could cause rates to fluctuate day-to-day, but significant rate increases seem unlikely this week. However, it's not likely we see rates move much lower from here either.

What's affecting rates this week:

- Inflation data: Consumer inflation data comes out Wednesday and is most likely to have an effect on mortgage rates, with wholesale inflation data coming out on Thursday. Declining inflation numbers would help mortgage rates improve, while signs of increasing inflation could pressure rates higher.

- Treasury auctions: There are a few auctions this week, and strong demand from investors would help keep Treasury yields lower, which typically benefits mortgage rates.

12/6/2024

Rates improved 👍

Mortgage rates showed improvement last week during the holiday-shortened trading period. The decline came as concerns eased over President-elect Trump's proposed tax and tariff policies.

This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast: Rates could be volatile ⚠️

Expect potential fluctuations in mortgage rates this week as markets react to a slew of economic and labor market data. The general outlook suggests rates are more likely to increase rather than improve significantly as the year comes to a close.

What's affecting rates this week:

- Labor market data: A range of reports this week will cover job openings, labor turnover, private payrolls, and unemployment claims. The most significant update will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) jobs report today. Strong labor market data could push rates higher, while only unexpectedly weak results might lead to lower rates.

- Economic data: Reports on consumer sentiment and other economic indicators could drive rates higher if they point to a strong economy. 

- Fed speakers: Fed members will be out speaking, sharing opinions on if any more Fed policy rate cuts are needed to keep the labor market and economy on track.